In recent days, I’ve looked at teams that were either underachieving or overachieving based on expectations. Let’s check the National League underachievers (or achievers as the case may be).
- Miami Marlins
What they’re doing.
The Marlins are 23-19 and in 3rd place in the NL East, 2 1/2 games behind the Braves.
How they’re doing it.
Their starting pitching has helped them overcome Heath Bell’s rancid first two months, a shaky overall bullpen and struggling lineup.
Bell’s been better in his last several outings, but no one, nowhere in Miami is going to feel comfortable with him closing an important late season game against any contender.
The lineup, which was supposed to be a strength, is 13th in the NL in runs scored. Jose Reyes hasn’t been the sparkplug they thought they were getting and his defense is drastically declining. Emilio Bonifacio is on the disabled list; John Buck and Gaby Sanchez are both hitting under .200 with Sanchez just having been sent to the minors; Logan Morrison has 2 homers; most glaringly and concerning (not counting last night’s game), Hanley Ramirez has played in a combined 133 games in 2011-2012 and hit 17 homers with a slash line of .259/.323/.412.
Then there’s the Ozzie Guillen-Fidel Castro controversy that, luckily for the Marlins, died down.
In addition to all of that, there’s the new ballpark and newly remodeled club and a still-underwhelming attendance that’s 8th in the National League.
Believe it or don’t?
I’d be very worried about Ramirez. With their starting pitching and Josh Johnson finding his form, they’ll have enough to loiter around contention, but their hitting and bullpen are so problematic that being barely over .500 is pretty much it for the Marlins.
Believe it.
- Philadelphia Phillies
What they’re doing.
The Phillies are 21-22, in last place in the NL East and 5 games behind the Braves.
How they’re doing it.
They’re without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard; Jimmy Rollins is hitting around .230; they’re carrying hitters like Freddy Galvis who’s not ready for the big leagues; and playing role players Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry Jr. regularly.
Roy Halladay hasn’t been his normal, machine-like self. Cliff Lee was on the disabled list and Vance Worley is on the disabled list. Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton have picked up the slack and helped the Phillies stay competitive through their injuries and offensive malaise.
Believe it or don’t?
Don’t believe it and don’t listen to Jim Bowden/schlocky websites/trolling columnists when they suggest that the Phillies are going to be sellers at the trading deadline. They’re not selling anything unless they’re 20 games under .500, and that’s not going to happen.
The Phillies will be back at or near the top of the NL East by the time the season is over.
- Milwaukee Brewers
What they’re doing.
The Brewers are 17-25 and 6 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.
How they’re doing it.
Losing Prince Fielder was bad enough, but his designated kindasorta replacement in the lineup, Aramis Ramirez, is hitting .218 with 3 homers; his actual replacement at first base, Mat Gamel, blew out his knee; and for good (or bad) measure, shortstop Alex Gonzalez blew his knee out as well.
The starting pitching has been good and the bullpen hasn’t.
Ryan Braun has picked up where he left off from his MVP season in 2011 and—presumably—he’s not going to be stupid enough to do anything that might cause a failed PED test.
Believe it or don’t?
This team is flawed and short-handed offensively. They have the pitching to get back within striking distance of a playoff spot, but unless they hit, they’re a .500 team at best.
Believe it.
- San Francisco Giants
What they’re doing.
The Giants are 22-20, 7 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
How they’re doing it.
They’ve lost closer Brian Wilson for the season, but their bullpen is still deep enough even without their horse. Starting pitching is carrying them and that’s with Tim Lincecum carting around an ERA over six.
Their hitting has been better than the popgun it was in the past, but pitching is what carries the Giants.
Believe it or don’t?
Don’t believe it. The Giants are better than a .500 team and once Lincecum gets straightened out and Pablo Sandoval is back healthy, they’ll be in the thick of the playoff race.
- Arizona Diamondbacks
What they’re doing.
The Diamondbacks are 19-24 and 10 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
How they’re doing it.
A lot went right for the Diamondbacks in 2011, especially in the bullpen. The lineup has black spots. Chris Young is just off the disabled list and they’re waiting for Stephen Drew.
Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan Roberts have a combined 4 homers. You can’t win with Willie Bloomquist playing every day and your first and third basemen not hitting the ball out of the park.
Trevor Cahill is 2-4 and that’s with a .262 BAbip. Imagine if he wasn’t as lucky as he’s been. Ian Kennedy has an ERA of nearly 4.5 and is leading the National League in hits allowed.
J.J. Putz has been a calamity as the closer.
Believe it or don’t?
Believe it. Their luck from 2011 has abandoned them and they’re plainly and simply not that good.
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PAULLEBOWITZ.COM 
The Giants and Phillies have too much pitching, even if its diminished from its high point, to not feast on a lot of the worse teams when they play them. Both teams will be 85-90 game winners.
The Marlins will be sellers soon. Their fan base is horrendous. Jose Reyes is a disaster. I think he needs some of the limelight that he got in a real baseball market where people cared about the team. In Miami, he’s just background noise to someone’s party.
I can’t fathom the Marlins selling before the winter of 2013-2014, but the world is different in Miami so anything is possible.
a lebo without the witz…
marlins pitching gets them to the playoffs if not the ws.
Well, you certainly told me.
Thanks for believing in the Phillies when almost the whole world are trashing our team. We’ll see towards the end of the regular season moving on to the playoffs!
Well, I wrote that before Halladay got hurt. My belief is waning.