Name: Jason Vargas—Seattle Mariners
Tale of the tape: Left-handed pitcher; 29-years-old; 6’0”, 215 lbs.
Contract status: $4.85 million in 2012; arbitration eligible for 2013; free agent after 2013.
Would the Mariners trade him and what would the trading team be getting?
They would trade him. They don’t have to trade him and might be better served to gauge the market and decide whether he’d be more valuable to trade this winter.
Vargas is a decent, mid-to-back-rotation lefty who gives up a lot of home runs (22 so far this season), eats some innings, and needs a big ballpark and good defense behind him to be successful. He has a mediocre fastball, an array of off-speed pitches and good control. Vargas is deceptive and throws across his body with the ball difficult to pick up out of his hand—he’s sneaky fast.
Jayson Stark wrote that the Braves are looking for an “impact” starting pitcher and have scouted Vargas extensively.
If the Braves are thinking of Vargas as an impact starter, then their criteria for that adjective is misplaced. An impact starter is someone that can start one of the first two games of a playoff series. With this current Braves club with their injuries, Vargas probably would start a game 3 behind Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson, but that’s more of a reflection on the Braves than it is on Vargas.
He’s not an impact starter; he’s someone who’s obtainable for a reasonable price and can be useful.
The Mariners have wrung about as much as they possibly can from him on the field and with the young pitching they have on the way to the big leagues, they’re not going to need to pay the Vargas the $6 million+ he’ll make in arbitration next season, nor are they going to overpay to keep him as a free agent after next season. He’s worth more in a trade than he is to keep whether they do it now or after the season.
What would they want for him?
The Mariners need hitting. Presumably they’d want a shortstop and an outfielder. The shortstop needs to have a good glove and an offensive attribute—speed, some pop, a good eye. The outfielder either has to be able to run and catch the ball or is a pure slugger for a corner spot or DH. They won’t get can’t miss prospects, but they’ll be able to get a couple of good prospects who are currently in Double A.
Which teams would pursue him?
Every contending team can use pitching. The Yankees are waiting out CC Sabathia’s and Andy Pettitte’s injuries with Freddy Garcia and their minor leaguers. I wouldn’t put Vargas in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park.
In fact, any bandbox is a bad idea and that eliminates the Orioles and Camden Yards.
The Blue Jays, Tigers, Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals and Pirates have good venues for him to pitch and the prospects to trade.
What will happen.
I get the feeling the Mariners aren’t going to trade Vargas at the deadline and they’ll wait until after the season when they might have a new GM replacing Jack Zduriencik to make the move.