Analyzing the Zack Greinke Trade

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For the Angels

The Angels have long had a history of collecting starting pitching. The addition of Zack Greinke gives them a top three of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Greinke with the struggling but still formidable Dan Haren at number four. The Angels are a veteran, win-now team and Greinke doesn’t have to be merely a rental. They have the money to sign him, but have to cautiously navigate the fragility of baseball players’ egos and clubhouse harmony if they give Greinke the $140+ million it’s going to take to keep him. Weaver chose to forego his opportunity at free agency—presumably over the strenuous objections of his agent Scott Boras—and sign a down-the-line contract for 5-years at $85 million. As much as he said that $85 million is enough money, he could change his tune if Greinke is given a guaranteed $60 million more to sign.

It can be debated how valuable Greinke is going to be to the Angels in the playoffs. If you look back through recent history, since the advent of the Wild Card, teams that have put together awe-inspiring starting rotations have routinely gotten picked off in the playoffs. Notably, the Braves and Phillies were two such teams and it happened repeatedly. The teams that have won in the playoffs have had a very good bullpen and reliable closer. The manager is also a factor. It’s different managing in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. In a short series, there’s not the option of leaving the starting pitcher in to find his groove and hope that the offense will make up the difference. A quick hook is required and a manager whose strategy isn’t predicated on the situation but is more invested in the “this is the way I manage” brand of egomania and inflexibility, the starting rotation isn’t going to help them all that much if they don’t perform.

But the Angels have to make the playoffs before concerning themselves with what they’re going to do while there and the addition of Greinke improves their chances in doing that.

For the Brewers

GM Doug Melvin got his shortstop for the next decade in Jean Segura. Segura’s path was blocked with the Angels and that wasn’t going to change, but the Brewers are starting an on-the-fly retool and Melvin has a history of turning things around quickly as he did after 2008 and put a team together that was a legitimate World Series contender three years later. They needed to rebuild a decimated farm system and with Segura and 6’9” righty pitcher John Hellweg and righty pitcher Ariel Pena, they’ve taken steps to restock that system.

This is not a teardown a la the Marlins where they’re taking their name players and dealing them away simply to gouge their customers and keep the authorities off their backs. Owner Mark Attanasio is flexible with his payroll, trusts his GM and the fans seem to understand how things have to be handled with in mid-market Milwaukee. Greinke had resisted efforts to stay in Milwaukee and if he were to do so, it would’ve required that he take a contract similar to the one the aforementioned Weaver took to stay with the Angels. He wants to get paid and that wasn’t going to happen for the duration or dollars palatable for the Brewers, so they moved on.

For Greinke

The sense that he’s not able to handle pressure due to his former issues with depression are still hovering over him like a vulture. Considered a bad fit for the large market clubs with demanding fanbases, the Angels are a laid back atmosphere in a languid locale. If Greinke proves himself able to deal with the expectations inherent with a team that has the payroll and star power of the Angels, it bolsters his free agent credentials. If he does poorly, the scrutiny will get worse. Pitching well in the regular season and in the playoffs might force teams like the Yankees to consider pursuing him. At worst, Greinke will have the Yankees as a bargaining chip to get the money he wants. In this market, if the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies are not chasing a free agent, his options are severely limited and, as a result, so will be his potential paycheck. He can put the rumors that he’s mentally weak to rest over the next two (and the Angels hope, three) months.

Then he’ll get his money.

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