The Dodgers Were Flawed To Begin With

All Star Game, Award Winners, Ballparks, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2013 Baseball Guide, Players, Playoffs, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, World Series

Injuries have been a significant factor for the Dodgers. Their starting rotation “depth” with which they entered spring training holding eight starters has seen one after another eliminated. Aaron Harang was traded to the Rockies who subsequently sent him to the Mariners where he’s pitched poorly. Chris Capuano is on the disabled list with a strained calf. Chad Billingsley is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Ted Lilly is out with a ribcage strain. Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone. All of a sudden they’re down to three bona fide starting pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Hyun-jin Ryu.

As for the lineup, Hanley Ramirez was on the disabled list with a thumb injury, came back sooner than expected and strained a hamstring. Mark Ellis has a strained quadriceps, Adrian Gonzalez has a strained neck. On the bright side, Carl Crawford is enjoying a renaissance now that he’s healthy and out of Boston, not necessarily in that order.

Don Mattingly’s job status as manager is being called into question because he’s in the final guaranteed year of his contract.

There are plenty of excuses but none approach an explanation for the crux of the problem: they were overrated by those with stars in their eyes. The injuries have affected them to be sure, but at the start of the season they didn’t have a legitimate starting third baseman and have been playing Luis Cruz who has a pitcher-like 6 hits in 71 plate appearances; they overspent to keep Brandon League as their closer and he hasn’t been good because—here’s a flash—he isn’t good. They did a lot of “stuff” over the past year since the new ownership took over almost as a set of diametrically opposed maneuverings to what Frank McCourt did in his decried time as the owner. The key difference is that the new ownership received accolades for “restoring” the Dodgers’ star power and McCourt was reviled for his apparent graft and selfishness, but McCourt’s teams were competitive and made the playoffs four times in his nine years of ownership. A break here and a break there and they win a World Series or two.

This Dodgers team was thought to be better than it was because of star/spending power. Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, moneymoneymoney. The 13-20 record is a result of injuries. They’re not this bad. But if they were completely healthy, they’re still not a championship team which, given the amount of cash they’ve laid out, is what should’ve been and apparently was expected judging by the reaction their slow start is receiving. The season is still salvageable. It’s only May, but their ceiling wasn’t that high to start and now with the stars they acquired to fill the seats instead filling the disabled list, there’s not much they can do other than wait and hope for health and the backs of the bubblegum cards to hold true. They have no other choice.

//

Advertisements

Off Season Winners In Retrospect

All Star Game, Ballparks, Books, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, Players, Playoffs, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, World Series

Let’s look at the teams whose off-season moves are paying off so far in 2012.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Acquired:  Jose Molina, Hideki Matsui, Luke Scott, Carlos Pena, Fernando Rodney

Subtracted: Johnny Damon, Kelly Shoppach, Casey Kotchman, Juan Cruz, John Jaso

The Rays did what the Rays always do. They cut out the players that were getting too expensive or had been signed as a short-term veteran stopgaps and replaced them with youngsters or other veteran stopgaps.

Molina hasn’t hit; Pena is doing what Pena does with a low batting average, good on base percentage and power; Rodney has been brilliant. None of the players they dispatched—Damon, Shoppach, Kotchman, Cruz, Jaso—have been missed or are doing much with their new teams.

Baltimore Orioles

Acquired: GM Dan Duquette, Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Lindstrom, Wilson Betemit

Subtracted: GM Andy MacPhail, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott, Vladimir Guerrero

The Orioles have played over their heads but Dan Duquette got rid of Guthrie and acquired Hammel and Lindstrom who are under team control and have pitched well. Chen has been very good.

Chicago White Sox

Acquired: Manager Robin Ventura, Kosuke Fukudome

Subtracted: Manager Ozzie Guillen, Mark Buehrle, Sergio Santos, Carlos Quentin, Juan Pierre

Getting rid of the volcanic and tiresome personality of Guillen and replacing it with the laid back Ventura has been exactly what the White Sox needed. They cleared salary by getting rid of veterans Buehrle, Quentin and Pierre. They’re not as good as they look right now, but the AL Central is wide open and they have enough starting pitching to stay in the hunt. They underachieved horribly in recent years under Guillen and are overachieving now under Ventura.

Texas Rangers

Acquired Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan

Subtracted: C.J. Wilson, Darren Oliver, Endy Chavez, Matt Treanor

Darvish has been as brilliant as I expected. Nathan is having a good season. They haven’t missed Wilson on or off the field.

Seattle Mariners

Acquired: Jesus Montero, Hector Noesi, John Jaso

Subtracted: Michael Pineda, Josh Lueke, David Aardsma, Jose Campos

For Michael Pineda (disabled list), Jose Campos (hot prospect and on the disabled list), the Mariners got a top hitting prospect in Jesus Montero who’s still finding his way and showing flashes of immense power and a young starting pitcher who’s also learning his craft in the big leagues in Noesi. They got rid of the troublesome Lueke for Jaso who’s been contributing big hits of late.

Oakland Athletics

Acquired: Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Collin Cowgill, Bartolo Colon, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Cook, Jarrod Parker, Tom Milone, Seth Smith, Kila Ka’aihue, Manny Ramirez

Subtracted: Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey, David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, Ryan Sweeney

Reddick has 14 home runs and is heading for the All Star Game. Cespedes was a silly signing for a team like the A’s, but there’s no denying his talent. We’ll see what Manny does and the young pitchers Millone and Parker are high-end arms.

Washington Nationals

Acquired: Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Perry, Mark DeRosa, Brad Lidge

Subtracted: Ivan Rodriguez, Todd Coffey, Jonny Gomes

Gonzalez has been terrific across the board and might deserve to start the All Star Game. Jackson has been consistent despite not accumulating wins.

Miami Marlins

Acquired: Manager Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Zambrano, Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle

Subtracted: Javier Vazquez, Chris Volstad, Clay Hensley, Burke Badenhop

Zambrano showed up in shape, has kept his temper in check and is showing why the Cubs gave him that contract in the first place (the majority of which they’re paying for him to pitch for the Marlins). Reyes is getting hot and Buehrle is a leader off the field and innings-eater on it. Bell’s been a disaster, but it pitching better lately.

Guillen was hired to draw attention and he did so negatively when he started trouble almost immediately with his idiotic comments praising Fidel Castro. Jeffrey Loria is under investigation for the stadium deal and looked silly using Muhammad Ali as a human shield to protect himself from getting booed at the regular season opener of the new stadium, but apart from Bell they’re getting what they paid for for the most part.

San Francisco Giants

Acquired: Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Clay Hensley, Gregor Blanco

Subtracted: Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Sanchez, Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross

Cabrera’s not going to maintain this pace, but he’s still a good player and they got him for Sanchez who’s been hurt and had worn out his welcome with the Giants. Pagan is batting .314 with 10 stolen bases and has contributed several big hits to go along with his usual array of space cadet maneuvers. Blanco and Hensley have been solid, cheap pickups off the scrapheap.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Acquired: Trevor Cahill, Jason Kubel, Craig Breslow

Subtracted: Micah Owings, Ryan Cook, Collin Cowgill, Jarrod Parker

The Diamondbacks are struggling because they’re not getting the same above-and-beyond performances from the players that carried them to a stunning division title in 2011. That doesn’t diminish the work that Cahill, Kubel and Breslow have done. If the Diamondbacks don’t right the ship, it won’t be because of the players they acquired over the winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Acquired: Chris Capuano, Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark Ellis, Aaron Harang, Matt Treanor

Subtracted: Jon Garland, Jonathan Broxton, Jamey Carroll, Hiroki Kuroda, Casey Blake, Rod Barajas, Vicente Padilla

Capuano is pitching about 20 miles over his head; Hairston is hitting about 20 miles over his head; Ellis and Harang are respected, under-the-radar veterans.

The Dodgers didn’t spend a lot of money this past winter, but are getting far more than they paid for.

Off season losers and incompletes will be in forthcoming postings.

//

The Dodgers Are Lucky And There’s Nothing Wrong With That

All Star Game, Ballparks, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, Players, Playoffs, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, World Series

Are you wondering how the Dodgers are 32-15 and 7 ½ games in front in the National League West?

Here’s how.

Journeyman utility player Jerry Hairston Jr. went 5 for 5 yesterday.

Two-time recipient of Tommy John surgery Chris Capuano pitched 7 innings of 2-hit ball, raised his record to 7-1 and lowered his ERA to 2.14.

Light-hitting veteran backup catcher Matt Treanor homered and is batting .290.

Treanor was playing in place of 31-year-old A.J. Ellis who, after spending 9 years in the minors and 4 in Triple A alone, is getting a chance to play regularly in the majors and has a slash line of .317/.442/.517 with 5 homers. He’s also thrown out 46% of potential basestealers behind the plate.

The Dodgers were flawed and for sale before the season started. They had a decent starting rotation led by reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and veteran Ted Lilly. They signed Aaron Harang and Capuano to fill out the fivesome hoping that both would provide competence. Their bullpen was questionable at closer and they had black holes in the lineup behind Matt Kemp. Kemp was carrying the offense on his back before he got hurt and they’ve held serve while he’s been out.

In spite of the hamstring injury to Kemp; non-existent production from shortstop Dee Gordon and third baseman Juan Uribe; the usual lack of power from James Loney; and a switch at closer from Javy Guerra to the strikeout machine Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers have rolled merrily along taking advantage of slumping divisional rivals the Rockies, Padres and Diamondbacks and riding their starting pitching and surprising contributors to the best record in baseball.

Everything that could conceivably have gone right for the Dodgers has gone right.

The ownership problem was solved when a group fronted by Los Angeles Lakers’ icon Magic Johnson bought the club from Frank McCourt and installed respected sports executive Stan Kasten as the new team CEO. They’re received the above-and-beyond the call performances from Capuano, Hairston and Treanor and have the means to improve during the season. Since they’ve gotten out of the gate so well and no longer have to count their pennies because of ownership disarray, they’ll be able to do what needs to be done to improve the offense and contend for the duration. They need a bat and GM Ned Colletti will get it (Justin Morneau is high risk/high reward) because he has the money to do it. If they get into the playoffs, they have the starting pitching and strikeout closer to do damage once there.

The black clouds that have hovered over Dodger Stadium are lifting and a marquee franchise is back at the top of the standings. The Dodgers are for real and whether they achieved that status through luck and circumstance is irrelevant. They’re here to stay and are very dangerous in part because of pitching in part because of luck—in no particular order or preference. There’s nothing wrong with being lucky.

//

Believe It Or Don’t—The Good

All Star Game, Ballparks, Books, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, Movies, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, PEDs, Players, Playoffs, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, World Series

Let’s take a look at some teams that—based on preseason expectations—are overachieving, how they’re doing it and whether or not it will last.

  • Baltimore Orioles

What they’re doing.

The Orioles are 27-14 and in first place in the tough American League East.

How they’re doing it.

Led by Adam Jones’s 14, the Orioles have the most home runs in the American League. The starting pitching was expected to be led by youngsters Jake Arrieta and Tommy Hunter—they’ve been okay. Two ridiculed acquisitions Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen have been excellent. The bullpen and manager Buck Showalter’s manipulation of it has been the key.

Believe it or don’t?

The Orioles have gotten off to good starts before and wilted in the summer heat. They can hit and hit for power; their defense is bad. But if Arrieta, Hunter and Brian Matusz pick up for Hammel and Chen when they come down to earth and the bullpen is serviceable, they can surprise and finish in the vicinity of .500.

They’re on the right track, but 13 games over .500 is a stretch.

Don’t believe it.

  • Oakland Athletics

What they’re doing.

The A’s are 20-21 after being widely expected to lose 90-100 games following a strange off-season in which they cleaned house of young arms Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey, but signed Yoenis Cespedes and Bartolo Colon.

How they’re doing it.

Slumps and scheduling have greatly assisted the A’s. They caught the Royals, Angels, Orioles, Tigers and Red Sox during lulls.

The starting pitching with youngsters (Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone) and foundlings (Colon, Brandon McCarthy) have been serviceable-to-good. Manager Bob Melvin knows how to run his bullpen.

I was stunned when I looked at the numbers and saw that Josh Reddick has 10 homers.

The Moneyball “stolen bases are a waste” Athletics are leading the American League in stolen bases.

Believe it or don’t?

They’ve lost two straight to the Giants and are heading to Anaheim to play the Angels and New York to play the Yankees. The Manny Ramirez sideshow is coming and no one knows if he can still hit enough to justify his presence. Cespedes’s hand injury saved him from being sent to the minors.

Don’t believe it.

  • Washington Nationals

What they’re doing.

The Nationals are 23-17 and in second place in the National League East.

How they’re doing it.

The Nationals’ starting pitching has been ridiculously good. Gio Gonzalez has been masterful; Stephen Strasburg is unhittable when he’s on (and hard to hit when he’s slightly off); Edwin Jackson, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler have been good as well.

The bullpen has been without closer Drew Storen all season, but Henry Rodriguez is filling in capably. Manager Davey Johnson is adept at handling his bullpen.

Injuries have hindered what should’ve been a strong lineup. Mike Morse, Wilson Ramos and Jayson Werth are out. Ramos is gone for the season with knee surgery; Werth broke his wrist and won’t be back until the late summer. 19-year-old Bryce Harper is adapting to the majors and showing exquisite talent and baseball intelligence amid growing pains.

Believe it or don’t?

This is a talented team whose run-scoring ability has been hampered by injuries. They’re 5th in the National League in home runs, but 14th in runs—that will get better once Morse gets back and Harper’s hitting consistently. The loss of Ramos is a big blow. The starting pitching won’t keep up this pace.

Believe it.

  • New York Mets

What they’re doing.

The Mets are 21-19 in an NL East that might be the most talented division in baseball.

How they’re doing it.

The Mets are 4th in the NL in on base percentage. David Wright has been an MVP candidate for the entire first two months; Johan Santana’s been excellent. That they’re managing to stay above .500 with Ike Davis batting .160 is a minor miracle. Everyone—especially the youngsters Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Lucas Duda—is contributing.

The starting pitching is short-handed and the bullpen has been, at best, inconsistent.

Believe it or don’t?

Unless Davis starts hitting when Wright cools down; unless the rest of the starting rotation and bullpen pick up for Santana when he slows down, they can’t maintain this pace especially when the Phillies get their bats back.

Don’t believe it.

  • Los Angeles Dodgers

What they’re doing.

The Dodgers are 27-13 and in first place by six games in the NL West.

How they’re doing it.

Matt Kemp was laying the foundation for a run at the triple crown and the MVP before he strained a hamstring. Andre Ethier is having an All-Star comeback season. Their starting pitching has been a wonder; the defense has been good. The entire organization breathed a sigh of relief when the reign of owner Frank McCourt came to an end. They’ve been reinvigorated by the enthusiastic presence of Magic Johnson as the ownership front man and the competent organizational skills of Stan Kasten.

Believe it or don’t.

Believe it within reason. They’ll be aggressive at the trading deadline to improve and are in for the long haul, but Chris Capuano and A.J. Ellis aren’t going to be as good as they’ve been so far. They’re going to need a bat and probably a starting pitcher. Ned Colletti will get what he feels the team needs to win.

//

The Dodgers Spending and the Market for Hiroki Kuroda

All Star Game, Ballparks, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, PEDs, Players, Playoffs, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, World Series

There are things to admire about Ned Colletti. He’s decisive and unapologetic as to what he believes in building a team; he’s acquitted himself as a professional during the Frank McCourt vs Everyone legal inferno; and he doesn’t play games.

But it’s difficult to find justification in signing Chris Capuano to a 2-year, $10 million contract to replace Hiroki Kuroda.

Kuroda is durable; Capuano is not.

Kuroda has great stuff and can get away with not being at the top of his game; Capuano is a fastball/changeup pitcher who has to have his control to be effective.

Capuano is an intelligent man and intense competitor; Kuroda is mean.

Capuano is willing to pitch inside and knock people off the plate as a correlation to strategy; Kuroda does it because he likes to do it.

If the Dodgers are going to imply that money was a major issue to retaining Kuroda, how do they equate that with signing Mark Ellis for a guaranteed $8.75 million; Juan Rivera for $4.5 million; Adam Kennedy to a guaranteed $800,000; and having given Juan Uribe $21 million last year? They even gave a million dollars to Matt Treanor.

Matt Treanor!

The Dodgers can’t claim that they don’t have the money for Kuroda after extending Matt Kemp with $160 million.

They either have money buried, a big credit limit or the hopes of income from somewhere in the future because they’ve been spending it now.

Colletti prefers to do all his shopping early in the winter before he’s left desperate in January and February, but sometimes it behooves an executive to wait and see with the non-tenders, trade targets and players who are left on the outside looking in; they might grow desperate for work as spring training approaches and be available cheaply.

For a team with multiple issues—both financial and on-field—it made no sense to spend so capriciously on mediocrity and worse.

In addition to his on-field ability, what makes Kuroda so attractive is that he’s not seeking the type of contract a pitcher of his stature normally would on the open market. Like Roy Oswalt, he’s not walking around with dollar signs in his eyes and an overinflated opinion of both himself and the rampant executive stupidity like that which led the Nationals to give Jayson Werth $126 million.

Kuroda could’ve secured a 3-year contract last season, but wanted to stay with the Dodgers and signed for 1-year at $12 million.

Few are truly appreciating how good Hiroki Kuroda is. Are they blinded by his under .500 record? Are they ignoring him?

He’s said to prefer to stay on the West Coast but if his map expands, the Yankees and Red Sox would both be after him; the Angels opened a spot in their rotation when they traded Tyler Chatwood; they’re not getting into a bidding war for Wilson nor are they going to satisfy his stated desire for $120 million—no one is.

Kuroda’s a perfect fit in Anaheim and it would be a brilliant addition to a rotation that is going to be among the best in baseball.

//

Of Reyes And Agendas

All Star Game, Books, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, Movies, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, Players, Playoffs, Politics, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, Umpires, World Series

I make no secret of reveling in the fact that Moneyball and Billy Beane are, by now, incongruent; that I find it funny that Beane has become a joke; that he’s trying to put forth the portrayal of the hapless everyman who’s been swallowed up by the big money clubs who stole his blueprint and left him behind.

The casual fan watches Moneyball, sees the “genius” with which Beane implemented the stat-based theory and found a means to compete in an uncompetitive world, then looks at the Athletics utter non-competitiveness and questions why he’s still considered a “genius”. Beane’s fall adds a perceptive resonance to the truth and directly correlates it to Moneyball being perceived as “wrong”.

Moneyball isn’t necessarily “wrong” insomuch as it was inaccurate and crafted in such a way to make Beane look smarter than he really was; to appear to be creating something when his main attribute was—as a matter of desperation—using the statistical analysis that few other clubs were using to the degree that he did.

And it worked.

For awhile.

Now it doesn’t work because teams like the Yankees and Red Sox are using the same strategy, buying the players Beane once got for free and covering up the ones that don’t work by flinging money at the problem.

My agenda isn’t to be seen as “right”, but to present the full context.

Others—specifically those who have a personal investment in bashing the Mets—can’t say the same.

Jose Reyes is either going to stay with the Mets or he won’t. They’ll make an offer. It will be a lucrative offer. And if someone vastly surpasses it, he’ll leave; if it’s not a drastic increase, he’ll have a decision to make.

Does the reason he leaves or stays matter?

Only in their warped, egocentric, self-aggrandizing views of themselves.

By “them” and “their” I mean any and all people who criticize an entity because it’s a convenient target like a piñata; because they have a vested interest in its failure or success.

Sandy Alderson was hired by the Mets. In the same scope of the Mets and Reyes, does it matter why he was hired? There are floating ideas that the Mets were forced to hired him by the commissioner’s office who wanted someone they trusted in place to keep an eye on the Wilpons and restore order to one of the big market franchises for whom it behooves MLB to be successful and not a laughingstock.

Alderson is the Mets GM; multitudes were pushing for him to be the GM because they thought they were getting the “father” of the Moneyball movement (another myth); but then he started GMing and wasn’t making the decisions they wanted, therefore he’s not any good.

It’s fan and media logic. And it’s ridiculous.

Alderson made the right decision in biding his time; not sacrificing the Mets limited prospects for veteran players to win 5 more games and appear to be competing in a division that they had no chance of winning or for a playoff spot they had no chance of securing; he dumped Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo; he made low-cost maneuvers that worked (Chris Capuano) and didn’t (Chris Young); he somehow found a way to get rid of Francisco Rodriguez‘s contract without having to take a headache off the hands of the team that took him; and he extracted a top tier pitching prospect in Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran.

It’s still not enough.

Whether or not the Mets were under siege due to the Bernie Madoff scandal would have little effect on Alderson’s strategy as GM. Rightly or wrongly, he doesn’t want to have a club with a payroll in the $150 million range; if that’s because he wants to appear smarter by doing it cheaper or that he feels he can stock his team just as well as the super-spenders without the capricious spending doesn’t matter if it works.

If the Mets had the access to funds the Yankees and Red Sox do, there’s still no guarantee that they’d allocate such a large chunk of their payroll to Jose Reyes.

It’s not because Reyes—as a talent—isn’t worth it. It’s because the team has multiple needs; Reyes’s injury history to his legs makes him suspect; a large part of his game is based on speed; and another team might jump in and blow them out of the water.

If that’s the case, they’ll have to move on and figure something else out.

Teams do it all the time.

Is Reyes replaceable? As a shortstop, they’re not going to replace him; but for the same reasons outlined in Moneyball, the Mets could find other pieces at various positions for the same amount of money that would be going to Reyes; they can bring in multiple players on the mound; in the outfield; behind the plate and possibly make themselves better and cheaper in the long run.

The Michael Kays of the world will sit in front of their microphones and rant and rave about how the Yankees would never let a key player leave if they really wanted to keep him. Apparently he’s forgotten that Andy Pettitte left the Yankees after the 2003 season to go to the Astros for less money, in part, because of a lack of respect shown to his work and loyalty; that had George Steinbrenner not made a last second phone call to Bernie Williams, the 1999 Yankees would have had Albert Belle and Williams would’ve gone to the Red Sox.

Alderson was hired to be the adult and not respond to public demands that border on the bratty and bullying.

He’s done a very good job in clearing some of the polarizing personalities; dumping money; restoring order and behaving in a rational, well-thought out fashion to do what’s best for the club. He’s also verbally backhanded every media member who tried to exert their will over him, specifically by intimidating the likes of Mike Francesa and Joel Sherman, slapping them down every time they say something idiotic in reference to what Alderson’s thinking without knowing anything about what he’s thinking, planning, doing.

The entire concept of the movie version of Moneyball—amid more silliness and trickery designed to convince the audience that reality isn’t real—was that Scott Hatteberg was a viable replacement for Jason Giambi and the manager of the club, Art Howe, ignored the GM’s demands to play Hatteberg until he had no other option; when Hatteberg played, he came through.

The public doesn’t want to know that Hatteberg was a regular player from the beginning of the season onward; that the Red Sox were lucky with David Ortiz and it wasn’t a grand design of diabolical brilliance; or that the Mets might be better off in the long run if they let Reyes leave.

Accept it or don’t.

It’s not going to alter objective truth one way or the other.

//

The Hindrance Of Chris Young

Books, Free Agents, Games, Management, Media, Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, Players

When the Mets signed 6’10” righty Chris Young, it was an absolutely worthwhile risk for both sides. Young, when he’s healthy is a terrific pitcher; the Mets needed—in all aspects—to take some low cost/low risk chances to try and strike gold.

The two sides agreed on a 1-year, major league contract for a $1.1 million base salary and another $3.4 million in performance, appearances and innings pitched clauses.

It doesn’t look like he’s going to reach those incentives.

In fact, as well as he’s pitched when he’s been able to pitch (a 1.88 ERA and great across-the-board numbers in 4 starts), Young is a case of “is it worth it?” based on his health.

Because Young has been so injury-prone to numerous parts of his body, no one can know if they’re going to get 5 innings from him; 8 innings; or if he’s going to have a problem getting loose as he did on Saturday and led to his latest trip to the disabled list.

The Mets aren’t currently in a position to be fussy, but Young’s on-again/off-again appearances are causing Dillon Gee to be in limbo as a member of the staff, but trapped in the bullpen and always on the ready if he’s needed to step in for another Young malady.

Earlier this season, after his auspicious Mets debut at the plate and on the mound against the Phillies, Young went on the disabled list with biceps tendinitis; now it’s his shoulder that’s causing pain and the area is close to where he had surgery while with the Padres.

This is not good for Gee nor is it good for the Mets to have this situation every five days when Young is on the active roster. No one can function in the long term this way.

A conclusion in this circumstance is hard to reach and from the sound of this injury, my guess is that Young’s not going to be pitching for at least a month; if he does, there’s that lingering array of injuries that repeatedly sabotage him.

By then, the Mets will have a better gauge on Gee and whether the other starters whose spots aren’t exactly set in stone (that would be all of the others—Chris Capuano, Jonathon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and R.A. Dickey) are capable of doing now.

Not long after that, Johan Santana is expected to be preparing his return.

Lamenting Young’s injury is an exercise in futility. Only those who were expecting him to stay healthy at all are partaking in such maudlin “wouldas, couldas and shouldas”. And if you were a believer in anything substantial from Young, you’re still living in a delusional world where the Mets are more than this with “this” being a team that could hover around .500 if everything breaks right.

If that’s what you’re banking on, then by all means monitor Young and await his return.

But if you’re realistic, hope that Carlos Beltran stays healthy; that Jose Reyes continues playing like a man looking for a $140 million payday; and that someone offers a grand package of prospects for anything else the Mets are willing to peddle, namely David Wright and wait for 2012 and beyond for the Mets to have their money issues straightened out, onerous contracts off the books and ready to do business to get back into legitimate contention with streamlined and cohesive organization from the front office all the way through the system.

That’s how to get back into a contending mode.

Not relying on a spin of the roulette wheel with oft-injuries players like Young.

****

I’m administrating a discussion group on TheCopia.com. Click on the link to leave a comment or start a new topic. Check it out.

****

Please purchase my book, Paul Lebowitz’s 2011 Baseball Guide. It’s still useful for your fantasy sports needs.

I published a full excerpt of my book here.

Become a fan on my Facebook fan page. Click on the link.

//

Lines Of Office

Books, Games, Management, Media, Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, Players

I repeatedly tried to assuage the fears of Braves fans that Fredi Gonzalez was a strategically poor manager who got the job to replace Bobby Cox based on Braves ties and his reputation as a man who controlled the clubhouse.

He did some strange things as manager of the Marlins, but his teams were always competitive and—apart from Hanley Ramirez—played the game hard and correctly.

But 17 games into his first season as the Braves manager, Gonzalez is inviting legitimate bewilderment into his decisions. Not only is he backtracking on his statements that implied he was sticking with his choices for the time being as was the case with Jason Heyward batting sixth (he’s now batting second); but he’s also vacillated on the spring training pronouncement that both Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel would be used as the designated closer based on matchups. It’s been Kimbrel, period.

Sunday’s game against the Mets was a case study in managerial idiocy that cost the Braves a win against a reeling and desperate club that resorted to using starting pitchers Chris Capuano and R.A. Dickey in relief to try and snap a 7-game losing streak.

In the second inning trailing 2-1, Gonzalez called for a suicide squeeze with Tommy Hanson at the plate, 2 strikes, 1 out and Eric Hinske on third. Hanson can’t hit; nor can he bunt. Hinske can’t run. It made absolutely no sense especially with Mets-killer Martin Prado on deck.

In the eighth inning, Brian McCann got picked off first base on a failed steal attempt with Hinske at the plate and Jason Isringhausen on the mound. Heyward had drilled Isringhausen’s first pitch over the center field fence; McCann had walked. With one out, the call was ludicrous with Hinske at the plate and Chipper Jones on deck.

The Braves fans who thought Gonzalez’s penchant for “doing stuff”—a common frailty among managers—was a recipe for disaster are seeing their nightmare come to life.

With a team this talented, presumably the manager’s game-costing decisions will be muted by sheer ability; but if the Wild Card/division comes down to one or two games, Gonzalez’s missteps could cost the Braves a playoff spot.

One unknown is where GM Frank Wren stands in all of this.

Does he question his manager—as is his right—after a gaffe-laden adventure like Sunday afternoon? Or does he let it go, confident that things will work out in the end?

If I were the GM, I’d be all over my manager for any decision I saw as questionable. It’s not out of line for the baseball boss of the organization to ask his field manager why he did what he did. There are the Tony La Russa-types who chafe at having their judgment and lines of office being crossed; they have a “how dare you?” reaction when questioned, but that shouldn’t preclude the GM from doing his job regardless of poor body language and short-tempered reactions from the manager.

It’s within the GM’s job description to oversee his manager. It’s not in the vein of a Moneyball-style middle-manager who takes orders, but an honest discussion between people who have to work together to make sure things run smoothly.

Did Wren step in with Heyward batting second? Possibly.

Did he question Gonzalez as to why he didn’t tell Hanson to stand there with the bat on his shoulder and wait to strike out to give Prado a chance to drive in runs? Why he had McCann stealing a base?

If he didn’t, he could’ve.

And should’ve.

****

I’ll be hosting a discussion group on TheCopia.com starting this afternoon around 12:30-1:00 Eastern Time. Given my history of saying lots of stuff, it should be….interesting.

****

Purchase my book, Paul Lebowitz’s 2011 Baseball Guide. It’s great for your fantasy baseball stuff all year long.

I published a full excerpt of my book here.

It’s available now. Click here to get it in paperback or E-Book on I-Universe or on Amazon or BN. It’s also available via E-book on Borders.com.

It’s out on Amazon Kindle and Barnes and Noble Nook.

If anyone would like to purchase an autographed copy, leave a comment; Email me; contact me on Facebook or Twitter.

Become a fan on my Facebook fan page. Click on the link.

//

Silent And Achy

Hot Stove
  • As opposed to “silent and deadly”…

Teams have made acquisitions that aren’t earth-shattering; nor are they the final piece in a championship puzzle; but as a means-to-an-end, they’re not all that bad when put into full context.

In short, they’re like a pinch or a pinprick—it hurts, but not a lot and if you have a bunch of them, you slowly start to feel the effects.

Let’s have a look.

Don’t laugh.

Orioles sign 1B Derrek Lee to a 1-year contract; RHP Kevin Gregg to a 2-year contract; acquire SS J.J. Hardy and 3B Mark Reynolds in trades.

No, the Orioles have no chance of competing in the American League East; in fact, they have little chance—Buck Showalter or not—to escape the cellar in the division; but these acquisitions at low cost will make the team viable again.

The combination of Showalter’s regime, discipline and organization and the leadership of Lee and Reynolds will make the clubhouse more agreeable.

Gregg is what he is; he has trouble throwing strikes and gives up too many homers, but for the most part, he’ll get the saves; they’ll be of the heart-stopping variety, but he’ll close the games out. Mostly.

Showalter prefers having lesser name closers so he doesn’t have to answer questions about why he doesn’t adhere to the “he’s the guy no matter what” nonsense that managers use as their security blanket to absolve themselves from thinking in the ninth inning.

Both Mike Gonzalez and Gregg will be competent at the back of the bullpen and, worst case scenario, they have trade value as the season moves along.

I’m a fan of neither Hardy nor Reynolds, but considering what they’re replacing, both are giant steps up and the Orioles didn’t give up much to get either.

You can’t reel in the big fish until there’s stability; the new manager and players will bring that stability to a once-storied franchise that has been rudderless for far too long.

Mets sign LHP Chris Capuano and RHP Taylor Buchholz to 1-year contracts.

The Mets are desperate for pitching and while this can be seen as flinging darts at a dartboard while wearing a blindfold, it’s a win-win with both pitchers.

Capuano went 18-12 in 2005 and 11-12 in 2006. In both years, he pitched pretty much identically. He pitched similarly through July in 2007 and then started getting raked all over the lot.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2008, he missed the entire 2008-2009 seasons and pitched respectably in 2010 as a starter and reliever; he was very good in the minors on the way back up to the bigs.

If the Mets can get something close to what Capuano was from 2005 through the first half of 2007, they’ll be thrilled.

Buchholz also had Tommy John surgery and it cost him the entire 2009 season; he pitched briefly for the Rockies and Blue Jays in 2010. While he was mediocre as a starting pitcher with the Astros in 2006, he found his niche as a reliever with the Rockies in 2008.

The epitome of the failed starter who makes his way as a relief pitcher, Buchholz was excellent in 63 games for the Rockies that year. He’s got a good fastball and a great curveball; his stuff appeared to translate better going once through the lineup; he’s on a non-guaranteed contract and is a fine representative of how to properly build a bullpen by finding scraps, signing them cheaply, using them, maximizing them and dispatching them when they grow too pricey.

These are both good signings.

Blue Jays sign RHP Octavio Dotel to a 1-year contract.

Dotel’s about as good (or bad) as Kevin Gregg; the Blue Jays got 37 saves from Gregg last year and now they’re taking a similar approach by signing Dotel.

Dotel gives up too many homers, but his strikeout numbers are still better than one-per-inning and, again in the worst case scenario, someone always seems to want him in a trade to bolster their bullpen late in the season; hypothetically the Blue Jays could get something for him if he’s pitching well.

Much like the Orioles, the Blue Jays are building for the future; they’re a year ahead in their development and the club is teeming with pitching; Dotel’s a stopgap; everyone knows that, but there are worse ones out there; plus he’s cheap.

  • Viewer Mail 1.5.2010:

Dave writes RE the NESN column—2011 Red Sox Will Challenge 1927 Yankees for Title of Greatest Team in Major League History:

Articles like these are actually going to make people root for the underdog Yankees in the AL East. As messed up as that sounds. If the Yankees don’t sign Pettitte, they will even have a lower payroll than Boston. Strange days.

I’m certainly not rooting for the Yankees, but I understand what you’re saying. Much like the Jack Zduriencik double-dealing in the trade for Cliff Lee, there were head shakes at what he did because it was wrong and shrugs because it was the Yankees to whom he did it. Sometimes the lesser of two evils is difficult to distinguish, so it’s best to steer clear and watch it happen with rampant disinterest.

That said, when it came from the Yankees, it was this type of arrogance that provoked Red Sox fans for all those years. This ridiculous column wasn’t coming from the Red Sox themselves, but many of their players—Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon—aren’t exactly likable and this will fuel the implication of smugness and condescension from the organization.

It’s not the beaten down and abused Red Sox against the Evil Empire anymore.

Joe writes RE the Rangers, Adrian Beltre and Michael Young:

I actually suggested a while back that Young could be moved to first if they were to sign Beltre. Because the reality is, the Rangers 1st baseman were awful last year.  Maybe Chris Davis learns how to hit this year?  Maybe. But letting him figure it all out in the Minors is a better idea, seeing how they can’t really risk him being horrendous while they are fielding a competitive Big League team.  Young is being paid regardless, so they might as well use him somewhere until all those positions are occupied by someone even better than Young is.

I can’t imagine Davis cutting his strikeouts to the point where he can be trusted to get 500 at bats, but he does have power. Mitch Moreland was competent in a part-time role; he’s also hit well in the minors.

I have never understood why people ridicule Young to the degree that they do. He delivers 180-200 hits a year; 60 extra base hits; and is a leader on and off the field. He’s not great defensively, but so what? He can play every infield position for the short-term in case of injury.

He’s making a lot of money ($48 million through 2013); his numbers are way better at home than they are on the road as most Rangers players tend to be, but the difference isn’t glaring as it is with some players.

In the short-term, the team is better with Young and Beltre; if they’re thinking of clearing the Young salary for some pitching, they could conceivably do that as well.

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Jon Miller, Vladimir Guerrero and the Rangers:

I’m gonna miss Jon Miller on Sunday nights. But I digress….Why wouldn’t the Rangers re-sign Vlad? He had such a good year for them and I’d be willing to bet he’s not asking for the moon. Why do they even need Beltre with Young at 3rd?

Guerrero had a great year and he, like Young, showed he could hit at home and on the road; he’s probably not going to settle for a 1-year, incentive-laden deal again after the year he had, at least not to go back to the Rangers. I think you’re right; his leadership and watchful eye over the young Latin players (along with Vlad’s mother doing the cooking) was a major part of their success this year. I’d be reluctant to dismiss that as meaningless especially with such a weak manager in Ron Washington.

Young is a far inferior fielder to Beltre and Beltre would hit in Arlington.

Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE pro wrestling, Scott Boras and Michael Young:

Oooooooooooooooooh yeah, brother! *Snaps into a Slim Jim*

Ask me if I feel sorry for Michael Young and his $16 million a year. I WISH I had such hard times at the office.

Scratching my head on the Rangers/Beltre thing, for the same reasons you are… I think they’d be better off saving that money til mid-season, to see where they are, and maybe go out and make some noise then.

Michael Kay and Scott Boras doing a pro rasslin’ interview with Jayson Werth strutting around in the background and primping like Ric Flair would get me to watch.