In this MLBTradeRumors posting linking a Jim Salisbury piece on CSNPhilly.com, Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is quoted as implying that there’s a possibility that the Phillies could be sellers at the trading deadline rather than the big ticket buyers they’ve been over the past five years.
In that time, the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence. Amaro is in on anyone and everyone and is willing to gut the farm system to get them.
The 2012 Phillies are ravaged by injuries and playing terribly. Could Amaro really decide to make wholesale changes by dealing Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels?
If he did, he wouldn’t get a ton for either. In fact, somewhat surprisingly, he’d extract more for Victorino than he would for Hamels because Victorino would be an easier signing to keep. Hamels wants to get paid and an interested team would have to give up the prospects to make it worth the Phillies’ while, simultaneously aware of what it’s going to cost to sign Hamels as a free agent.
It’s far more likely that Amaro doubles down and tries to fix the club’s problems by trading for a bat and/or bullpen arm (Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Carlos Quentin if he ever plays, Brandon League); or signing someone (Oswalt) than for him to concede the season.
Amaro tried the “win now and build for the future” approach when he traded away Lee in the series of trades that brought Roy Halladay and several prospects back to the Phillies in December of 2009. It hasn’t worked out yet.
At mid-season 2010 with the club floundering at 48-46 and 7 games out of first place on July 21st, there was talk that pending free agent Jayson Werth would be traded with a deal sending him to the Rays supposedly in place.
Fate stepped in as Victorino got hurt and, with no other capable centerfielder on the roster, they had to keep Werth.
Under siege for having traded Lee, Amaro took the unusual step of essentially admitting his mistake and bolstered the starting rotation by trading for Oswalt.
From there, they went on a 49-19 tear to finish at 97-65 and win the NL East again. They lost in the NLCS to the Giants.
The Phillies are still selling out their games. With the extra Wild Card, their starting pitching and the eventual returns of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, Amaro won’t toss the season unless they’re 20 games under .500 as the trading deadline approaches.
That’s not going to happen.
There won’t be a sell-off. In fact, Amaro is probably willing to deal the Phillies’ remaining marketable prospects (Domonic Brown, Phillippe Aumont, Trevor May) to get help.
Considering the advanced age of their roster and the rapidly closing window to win with this current group, it makes no sense to build for the future. They’re heading for a long lull of rebuilding. There’s no reason to exacerbate it by giving up on 2012.