Floating Rumors Like R.A. Dickey’s Knuckler

There was a colossal freakout of rumor and innuendo when the story broke that the Mets would consider trading National League Cy Young Award finalist R.A. Dickey in the right package and/or if they can’t sign him to a contract extension.

Let’s take a look at the whys and why nots, whether this is a real concept or something the media and/or Mets are floating to achieve their own ends.

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Would they trade him? Should they trade him?

The Mets have been discussing contract extensions with Dickey and David Wright. They freed up some money for the immediate future with their agreement to terminate Jason Bay’s contract and to defer some of his $21 million. How much is unknown. They put forth the idea of having pitching to spare; desperately want to keep Wright; are concerned about Dickey’s age, the velocity with which he throws his knuckleball, and can get a lot for him now; and contract rumors are running the gamut from non-existent progress to Dickey wanting five years.

Who knows what’s true and what’s not?

The Mets would trade Dickey, but they would have to get a “look who we got” player in return—a player that the fans would accept. If it’s three minor leaguers the rank and file fan doesn’t know, it’s not going to fly. If the Mets can formulate a way to get Justin Upton or Jacoby Ellsbury, possibly by way of a 3-team trade, then yes, trade Dickey. If it’s a slightly better-than-average bat and a couple of minor leaguers, it’s more self-immolation from the club for which they’ll get deservedly roasted.

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Are the rumors believable and is there a mutual advantage to floating them?

I don’t put much stock in rumors of any kind. It’s “rumor season” in baseball where you can check into five sources and five stories that range from an extension being imminent to a trade being “done”. It’s a hand-in-hand agreement the media has with the teams that the reporters will get a nugget to garner webhits and readers and the club will toss out a story to see how it goes over. The Mets could very well be conducting market research to see what the fans are going to do if they trade one of their favorites. The rumors are believable as a consideration, but not to be trusted in what they’re saying as “fact”.

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Will they trade him?

I find it hard to envision the Mets trading Dickey whether they sign him to an extension or not. They may have some pitching depth, but it’s not on a level with the Rays and Giants where they can deal a legitimate starter and have a youngster or cheap veteran step in and still win. They can’t deal Dickey and expect Zack Wheeler to seamlessly slide right into the vacated spot. Dillon Gee is returning from a blood clot that could not only have been career threatening, but life threatening. Jenrry Mejia is still a question mark as a starter. Jeurys Familia’s control and performance late in the season showed he needs more minor league polish. Collin McHugh and Jeremy Hefner are journeymen. In fact, with Johan Santana still trying to regain full strength, Chris Young mediocre, and Matt Harvey and Wheeler on innings/pitch limits, the Mets “strength” in starting pitching is just as much of a float as the concept of trading Dickey. It’s kindasorta there, but not really.

If the Mets pull the trigger on Dickey, they had better have Wright’s deal locked up to say to the fans, “Look at the shiny toy,” like a dog in order to distract him to the fact that he’s going to the vet to be neutered. Otherwise, Dickey’s going nowhere.

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R.A. Dickey’s Story is Meant for Paperback

How much more money has R.A. Dickey made for himself with his story?

I’m not talking about his baseball contract. The Mets have him signed for next season at $5 million and if his second half goes as well as his first half, I’d expect them to approach him about a reasonable extension. It won’t be 5 years (knuckleballer or not, he’s going to be 38 in October), but 2-3 years with incentives and options is a realistic starting point.

The extra money I’m talking about is with the paperback release of his book.

It’s doubtful that Dickey got a large sum of money in the form of an advance for the hardcover version of his book, Wherever I Wind Up: My Quest for Truth, Authenticity and the Perfect Knuckleball.

You can read my review here.

Knowing how the publishing industry works, he’s getting a 10-20% royalty off the cover price on every copy sold and that has to be shared with his collaborator Wayne Coffey. It’s possible that Coffey got paid upfront and isn’t getting a piece on the backend. Bad luck for him if that’s the case.

The cover price is $26.95. It’s currently #58 on Amazon’s bestseller list; #1 for religious and spirituality; #2 for baseball; and #4 in sports and outdoors.

Just for context, if I sell one copy of my book, my rankings rise from say 400,000 on Amazon to 200,000. For my 2001 novel I received a standard entry level author contract. The royalties were such that I got 10% of the first X number of books sold and 15% for anything after that. It didn’t amount to a massive series of paychecks for me, but for a book like Dickey’s that can mean a lot of money just from sales alone.

With the number of books that Amazon stocks overall, Dickey’s book is selling rapidly and it’s been boosted greatly by his performance. The book was interesting before Dickey’s sudden rise to All-Star/Cy Young/MVP status. He pulled no punches and made personal revelations that have rarely been seen from an athlete. The storyline of going from where he was to where he is now is exponentially multiplying the fees his representatives are going to be able to secure for the paperback rights. That Dickey is—I guarantee this—keeping a diary of his 2012 season for the “new chapter” in the paperback and that this new chapter will include everything from the attention he’s received to the Mets’ surprising vault into contention to the way he’s pitched will all combine to make him money that few first time authors and almost no athletes make.

It’s a stunning leap for Dickey on the field; a cathartic and gutsy display of naked self-revelation in his book; and now, a financial windfall.

And that’s before getting to the movie rights. They’re coming too.

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