2012 MLB Preview Podcast Appearance

All Star Game, Ballparks, Books, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, Movies, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, PEDs, Players, Playoffs, Podcasts, Politics, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, Umpires, World Series

I was a guest with Mike Silva last night on his New York Baseball Digest Podcast. You can listen below, download from I-Tunes or listen on Mike’s site.

We talked about everything for 2012 including the Red Sox, Bobby Valentine, the Yankees, Alex Rodriguez, the Mets, the Nationals, the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Neftali Feliz, the Braves, the Mets, the Phillies, Bryce Harper, the Marlins, Jose Reyes, the Reds, the Rockies, Troy Tulowitzki and many other things.

Listen to internet radio with NY Baseball Digest on Blog Talk Radio

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My book, Paul Lebowitz’s 2012 Baseball Guide is now available and useful all season long for everything from general information to stats to predictions to fantasy.

Check it out on KindleSmashwordsBN and Lulu with other outlets on the way.


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National League Fantasy Sleepers

All Star Game, Ballparks, Books, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, PEDs, Players, Playoffs, Politics, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, Umpires, World Series

Let’s look at some fantasy sleepers in the National League.

Mike Minor, LHP—Atlanta Braves

He got a lot of grief for what was perceived to be a “play me or trade me” demand that he start the season in the big leagues in the Braves’ starting rotation.

It wasn’t that kind of demand at all, but that’s how it was taken.

Putting that aside, with Tim Hudson recovering from back surgery Minor is going to have to start the season in the big leagues. He’ll want to get off to a good start to stake his claim in the rotation and validate his assertion that he belongs.

He racks up the strikeouts, hits hits/innings pitched ratio is great and he doesn’t allow a lot of home runs or walks.

John Mayberry Jr., OF/1B—Philadelphia Phillies

Mayberry has never gotten the chance to play regularly from the start of the season onward, but will in 2012.

With Ryan Howard’s return date increasingly uncertain after the procedure to clean up the infection in his surgical wound, there’s even more reason to pick up Mayberry. The Phillies’ situation in left field is in flux and he’ll also play some first base.

He has 25-30 homer potential.

Chase Utley, 2B—Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at his basic stats, it appears as if he’s on the decline due to age and injury.

It’s nonsense.

Utley has hit in notoriously bad luck in the past two seasons. His BAbip was .288 in 2010, .269 in 2011. He stole 14 bases without getting caught after returning from his knee injury. His power numbers were right in line with what he normally produces.

Utley’s going to have a big comeback year.

Chris Coghlan, INF/OF—Miami Marlins

He may have worn out his welcome with the newly star-studded Marlins, as injuries and bickering with the front office have diminished the former NL Rookie of the Year to a forgotten man.

The Marlins don’t have a prototypical centerfielder on the roster (they’re intent on going with Emilio Bonifacio), Coghlan can play the position defensively and his bat can rebound. He’ll get one last shot with the Marlins; otherwise he’s trade bait and is worth the risk in the hopes of a return to what he once was.

Frank Francisco, RHP—New York Mets

He’s not a great closer, but he strikes out over a batter an inning. If you need someone to get you some saves and don’t want to pay for them, he’s going to be cheap.

These are the Mets and fantasy mirrors reality.

Or reality mirrors fantasy.

Or both reflect a nightmare. Or circumstances.

Or all of the above.

Jonathan Lucroy, C—Milwaukee Brewers

Lucroy has a career minor league OPS of .838 and an OBP of .379. He’s hit 20 homers in a season in the minors and hit 12 in the big leagues last season.

He’ll be cheap and there’s major room for improvement.

Alex Presley, OF—Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates’ outfield situation flanking Andrew McCutchen isn’t set. Presley can run and had an .804 OPS in 231 plate appearances in the big leagues last season.

Jeff Samardzija, RHP—Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are going to trade Carlos Marmol at some point and someone—either Samardzija or Kerry Wood—will have to take over as closer. It makes no sense to use Wood at this stage of his career.

Samardzija overcame his control issues for the most part and struck out 87 in 88 innings last season.

Bud Norris, RHP—Houston Astros

Norris isn’t going to win many games for the Astros, but he strikes out close to a batter per inning and has had excellent hits/innings pitched ratios at every level.

David Hernandez, RHP—Arizona Diamondbacks

I don’t trust J.J. Putz to stay healthy and Hernandez saved 11 games in Putz’s absence last season.

Hernandez struck out 77 in 69 innings and allowed 49 hits.

Cory Luebke, LHP—San Diego Padres

Luebke struck out 154 in 139 innings last season and allowed 105 hits.

He began 2011 in the bullpen, but moved to the starting rotation in the second half. He’ll be a full-time starter in 2012.

Jerry Sands, OF—Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers circumstances in left and right field aren’t settled. Juan Rivera is slated to start in left and Andre Ethier is a free agent at the end of the season and is a good bet to be traded.

Sands has posted huge power numbers in the minors—stats—and has the speed to steal 15-20 bases.

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Revisiting the A-Rod Contract

All Star Game, Ballparks, Books, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, Management, Media, MiLB, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, PEDs, Players, Playoffs, Politics, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, World Series

Rob Neyer wrote this piece in yesterday’s NY Times about Alex Rodriguez‘s contract with the Yankees.

Rationality doesn’t exist when Hank Steinbrenner insinuates himself into a negotiation so it shouldn’t have been a shock when the Yankees decided to reward A-Rod for opting out of his contract in 2007. Because the contract has become so toxic and A-Rod is physically deteriorating right before our eyes, the Yankees can reasonably wonder what they’re going to get from him in the immediate and distant future.

Tied in with that contract and the Yankees desperate hopes to get something—anything—out of A-Rod, it’s not surprising that they let him go to Germany for experimental procedures on his shoulder and knee.

Considering how onerous that contract is, that the team is cognizant of the new luxury tax guidelines and wants to stay below what amounts to a salary cap by 2014, A-Rod’s deal is a sinkhole in their budget and it’s showing up in their scarcity of moves this winter—they’ve stood pat when they really aren’t in a position to stand pat.

The horrible contract aside, it’s doubtful that they ever expected him to be a problem in the lineup as well as on the ledger.

There was always the “well, it’s A-Rod” argument that he’d produce for the team in some way independent of salary; the money’s gone and it’s not coming back, but at least he’d play every day and hit.

But he’s not playing every day; his hitting is declining; his defensive range is decreasing; and he’s got six years remaining on that contract.

Amid the numerous reasons why Steinbrenner’s intervention was idiotic, there were justifications that they’d get offense from the player for the duration.

Accounting for extenuating circumstances and the closing window of chemical assistance (PEDs), a 33% dropoff in his home run output in 2007 would still yield MVP-quality numbers with 38 homers plus huge on-base and slugging percentages. Greatness diminished is still greatness; if A-Rod were better than the rest of baseball while using enhancers, he’d be better than the rest of baseball playing clean.

It made sense in theory.

He’d been durable and the last thing the Yankees were expecting was this dramatic physical breakdown.

A-Rod’s contrition for the ill-timed opt-out during the 2007 World Series and subsequent split with Scott Boras masked the fact that he got what he wanted—a ridiculous extension—from the whole episode.

The drug use aiding players’ performance into their late-30s to replicate what they did in their 20s implied that there was little risk in a contract that kept a great player past his 40th birthday—worst case, he’d walk a lot and be a threat in the lineup with 25 homers. That’s still productive and useful.

But A-Rod is coming apart physically. If Steinbrenner had been persuaded that a mid-to-late 30s decline was inevitable while taking history and the new drug testing (amphetamines included) into account, the Yankees might’ve avoided this nightmarish contract. But the baseball people must’ve figured they’d get something out of him even in the old-man years.

Now it doesn’t look like they’re going to.

They’ll certainly be paying for it though.

Literally and figuratively.

I’m planning on adding a Fantasy Baseball page onto my site and don’t play Fantasy Baseball—you can see my conundrum. So if you can write and know Roto (and I really don’t care what you say as long as you don’t give me a lot of editing work, aggravation and know what you’re talking about), email me on the contact link at the top of the page.

It’s unpaid, but people will read your stuff.

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